CFD-Based Estimation of Sunken Vessel Position Using Environmental Data and Last-Recorded AIS Data

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Department of GIS, School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

10.22059/eoge.2026.409790.1203

Abstract

This study proposes a fluid-dynamics–based approach for estimating the probable location of a sunken vessel. The last recorded position of the distressed ship from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and environmental inputs—including wind direction, wind speed, and local bathymetric depth—are used as model drivers. A simplified Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) framework is adopted, in which the vessel is treated as a control volume subject to the primary forces of gravity, buoyancy, wave-induced drift, and the ship’s initial velocity. The results indicate that fusing the last-recorded AIS data with environmental data enables an initial estimate of the final resting position of the sunken hull. In addition, Virtual Probability Circles (VPCs) are constructed around the estimated position to represent uncertainty and to delineate a practical search area. The model was applied to the Verity shipwreck case in the North Sea, yielding an estimated wreck position at 54.0254°N, 7.6446°E. The computed total probable error was 229 m, corresponding to 50% and 95% probability circles with radii of 229 m and 458 m, respectively. These numerical results demonstrate the model’s practical capability for initial localization of sunken vessels and provide a decision-support tool for prioritizing search areas in maritime Search and Rescue (SAR) operations.

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