Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran
2
R. B. Annis Water Resources Institute, Grand Valley State University, 740 Shoreline Dr, Muskegon, MI 49441, USA
10.22059/eoge.2026.402348.1189
Abstract
Drought is a natural hazard that affects multiple aspects of human life and poses serious threats to ecosystems. In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of droughts have increased worldwide. Remote sensing has proven to be a valuable tool for monitoring drought and its impacts. This study investigates drought propagation (DP) from meteorological drought (MD) to agricultural drought (AD), as well as the seasonal factors influencing it, in Khuzestan Province, Iran, during the period 2000–2022. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SMI) were applied at 1-, 3-, and 12-month timescales to identify MD and AD. Drought events were detected using the Run Theory method, and the Maximum Correlation Coefficient (MCC) method was employed to estimate propagation times from MD to AD. Influencing factors, including precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation (NDVI), were also examined. The results revealed that MD and AD occurred during 2008–2009, 2016–2019, and 2021–2022. Moreover, the analysis indicated that from 2000 to 2022, the frequency, duration, and intensity of drought events have increased, showing a clear upward trend over time. Propagation times were relatively short in spring, summer, and autumn (1–3 months), but were longest in winter (up to 7 months). The MCC values for summer, spring, autumn, and winter were 0.79, 0.63, 0.75, and 0.66, respectively. Precipitation had the greatest influence on AD in spring (r= 0.58) and autumn (r= 0.37), while vegetation played a more significant role in spring (r= 0.51). A strong correlation among soil moisture, precipitation, and NDVI during spring indicated an active hydrological cycle and rapid vegetative response, which accelerated drought propagation. These findings provide insights into seasonally vulnerable periods and can support the development of more effective drought early warning systems.
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